UPDATE: Campaign Briefs – Gingrich Skips Michigan; Romney, Santorum 'Neck and Neck'

Patch presents Michigan presidential campaign roundups before the Republican primary Feb. 28.

Romney, Santorum race tight in Michigan, new poll shows

A new NBC News/Marist poll shows Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie.

In Michigan – which has turned into a make-or-break contest for Romney – the former Massachusetts governor gets the support of 37 percent of likely GOP primary voters, including those who are leaning toward a particular candidate, the poll shows. Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, has 35 percent support, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8 percent.

“Michigan is neck and neck,” said pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Gingrich won't campaign in Michigan 

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has decided not to campaign in Michigan ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Recent polling shows Gingrich in fourth place in the state.

Gingrich had planned to travel to Michigan at the end of the week, but his spokesman R.C. Hammond announced Monday night that he wouldn't make the trip, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

Meanwhile, leading candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have made several appearances in Michigan in the last week. Romney most recently was in Shelby Township on Tuesday and plans to speak at the Detroit Economic Club on Friday. Santorum spoke to the Economic Club on Thursday.

Candidates advertise early and often

Pick a channel, any channel. If you watch TV, you're seeing lots of spots promoting or attacking Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. The Republican presidential rivals and two political action committees (PACs) buy lots of local airtime daily.

Huffington Post lists these TV budgets for Michigan ads this month: $3.2 million for Romney and Restore Our Future; $1.1 million for Santorum and Red White and Blue Fund.

"Santorum's presidential campaign and his allied super PAC are putting all their chips into Michigan," according to HuffPo, "in hopes that a win there catapults him to victories later in the primary calendar." The first Michigan ad run by the PAC backing Santorum is embedded at right.

For its part, Team Romney late last week introduced a new Michigan attack ad. It criticizes Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, for supporting "billions in earmarks," which provide federal money for local projects. Santorum is shown once telling a talk show host: "I have had a lot of earmarks. In fact, I’m very proud of all the earmarks I’ve put in bills."

An earlier spot from Restore Our Future, also embedded with this article, has the tagline "Rick Santorum: Big Spender, Washington Insider."

In the view of Alexander Burns at Politico.com, the Red White and Blue Fund's "presence in Michigan is going to make it a fairer paid-media fight than Santorum’s had anywhere else. ... Santorum won’t be defenseless on the air as the first wave of negative ads against him register among Michigan Republicans."

Blog encourages mischief

Daily Kos, a 10-year-old public affairs blog, is behaving like a 10-year-old prankster. It invites Michigan readers to "sign up for Operation Hilarity," the site's name for crossover voting by Democrats.

"The longer the GOP primary drags on, the better things look for Democrats," the site says. "We are encouraging Democrats, liberals and progressives to vote for Rick Santorum." Mischief-makers can receive an email reminder to vote Feb. 28.

What polls show

A recent Michigan survey has Feb. 17-19 results from 602 likely voters questioned by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, NC. It shows 37 percent support for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney. (Ron Paul has 15 percent and New Gingrich trails with 10 percent.)

"Romney's still not convincing anyone that he's a Michigander – only 29 percent of voters consider him to be one, while 62 percent do not," the North Carolina firm says. "But given that he's risen in the polls over the last week without making any progress on that front, it looks like it doesn't really matter whether or not Michigan Republicans consider him to be one of their own."

Based on eight February polls in the state, New York Times analyst Nate Silver on Monday gives Santorum a 72 percent chance of winning in Michigan Feb. 28 – while noting "considerable uncertainty in the forecast."

Voices from the trail

• "The Snyder endorsement is not the magic excelsior the Romney campaign needs to cure his political ills. ... Mr. Snyder does not attract the very voters who have gone AWOL on Mr. Romney." – Tim Skubick, Lansing public TV talk show host, blogging at MLive.com on Sunday
• "If Romney doesn't do well (in Michigan), he can't say it's because of the peculiarities of the state. The peculiarities of this state work in his favor." – John Dickerson, CBS News political director, Sunday on Face the Nation
• "The Michigan primary has the look of a High Noon showdown between the two fastest guns left in the Republican posse." – Mike Connell, retired executive editor in a Port Huron Times Herald front-page column Sunday
• "If Rick Santorum pulls off (a Michigan) upset, it'll be the biggest victory for the sweater-vest set since Jim Tressel coached Ohio State to eight wins in nine years against Michigan." – Jason Stanford, Democratic consultant, at Politico.com on Saturday
• "As the first primary in an industrial state, Michigan brings manufacturing and urban issues to the forefront of the presidential campaign. These are usually issues not considered this early in the primary process." – Terri Towner of Rochester, Oakland University political scientist, Patch email interview
• "What Michigan needs aren't pols relitigating the past, but a credible economic vision for the future that unites a whole lot more people than it alienates." – Daniel Howes, business columnist, The Detroit News